Rising CDS Levels for Dubai and Greece; Vietnam and China More Stable

Black Friday got a little darker for Dubai as the nation requested a six-month stand-still agreement on its debt. A year ago, when the world was not only staring into the abyss but appeared to have slipped off the edge and was falling into it, Nouriel Roubini was predicting all sorts of horrible outcomes at the time which included at least one sovereign debt holder failing if not two or three. To some extent it is a little surprising that it has taken this long for that prediction of his to come about.

The actual jolt seems somewhat less terrible than all of the headlines would have us believe however as Roy Ramos, an analyst with Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong said, “Our first stab at potential worst-case loss estimates suggests a manageable impact.” After some back of the envelope calculations, RR thinks the two banks with the biggest exposure, HSBC (HBC) and Standard Chartered Bank could take hits of $611MM and $177MM respectively. Not fun by any means but given the write-offs of the last year, these numbers seem more like rounding errors than anything with the potential to sink either institution.

With countries like Australia and Israel well into their recoveries and raising rates to moderate their rebound’s momentum, it is becoming a case of global haves and have nots as Greece, Italy, Ireland and Portugal are seeing the cost of default insurance on their debt rise.

Greece in particular has been getting a lot of attention lately as the yield on its debt as compared to that of Germany has increased significantly. The Greek government said its deficit will hit 12.7% of its national income this year which is the most for any country in the 16-nation euro-currency zone. Moody’s Investor Service has warned that both Greece and Portugal could see downgrades on their government debt in the future.

Interestingly there were a few other events of note late last week that didn’t get the same coverage but were equally if not more important. First was that Vietnam devalued its currency by 5% last Wednesday which was the third devaluation for the Dong since June 2008. The Vietnamese central bank simultaneously raised its interest rate by 1%. The motivation for the first was to make Vietnam’s manufactured goods cheaper than its Asian neighbors' goods while the rate rise was meant to battle speculative forces on the Dong.

China was also making a bit of history as it sold its first government bond with a 50 year maturity. Demand for the paper was strong as the 20BN Yuan bond ($2.93BN) sold at a yield of 4.3%, better than early estimates of needing a yield between 4.40%-4.50% to attract sufficient interest. The bid to cover ratio of 1.99 was also stronger than the 1.5 average for previous Chinese government bond auctions

The move was seen as part of the nation’s effort to make its government bond market a better pricing benchmark for corporate debt sales. Chinese pension funds and insurers were the primary buyers as they seek to better match assets with liabilities.

While there has been much discussion of excess liquidity in the Chinese economy evidenced by real estate prices in Hong Kong and the amount of gambling in Macau, the ruling Politburo of China’s Communist Party announced Friday that it would “maintain the continuity and stability of economic policies, and continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy.” So in a slight twist to Admiral Farragut’s phrase, it looks like it’s “damn the bubbles, full speed ahead.”

Dubai’s CDS closed at 317bps on 11/24 and 647bps on 11/27. The low of 288bps was hit on 10/20.

Greek sovereign default insurance bottomed on 8/4 at 100bps and while not moving as dramatically as Dubai’s CDS did last Thursday, it did reach 208bps that day. So while the move was more gradual, the result was actually a larger increase than that experienced by Dubai.

Vietnam’s CDS closed at 263bps on Friday which is where they spent most of August. September brought a move down to the mid-100s with the low of 166bps being reached on 10/16. The highs were touched last December 5th at 613bps.

China’s CDS have been trading sideways since about May of this year bound by 100bps on the upside and 58bps (9/23) on the downside. That closed towards the upper band on Friday at 92bps, possibly a result of the continuation of the government’s stimulative efforts.

Enjoy the week.

Danh sách công ty cho thuê tàu bay

Company	Services	L	R	E	AP	Leasing	Additional services
A41 Group Inc.	SUP	L	R	E	AP	N/A	TBA
AA Maintenance Services	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	AP	OL	MRO services. Availability...
AAA Jets, LLC	SUP	L	-	E	AP	N/A	MRO services
AAR Corp.	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL/SLB	Remarketing, tech services, storage/asset management.Availability...
ABX Air	OWN	L	-	E	-	ACMI/OL	MRO services
ACL Aircraft Trading Ltd	SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/ACMI	Sales, remarketing, evaluations. Availability...
AELIS	MNG/SUP	-	R	-	-	ACMI	Asset/lease/records/financial management, trading services.Availability...
AerCap	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB	Remarketing, purchasing, selling, technical/contract management, financial engineering, securitisation
Aergo Capital	OWN/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/FL	Management, remarketing, consultancy
Aero Excel Components	OWN	-	-	E	-	OL	Short and long term leases. Availability...
AeroAsia Corp.	OWN	L	-	-	-	ACMI	Sales and financing services. Availability...
AeroThrust	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO Services
AeroTurbine	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	-	Tech Services. Availability...
AES Aviation GmbH	SUP	A	R	E	-	-	Technical/commercial project management support; financing/managing transport aircraft fleets; managing and/or Phasing-In/-Out fleets; other complex technical projects
AIAP	OWN/MNG	-	-	-	AP	OL	Repair management services. Availability...
Air Atlanta Icelandic	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	ACMI	-
Air Contractors	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Maintenance, ad-hoc charters (cargo aircraft)
Air Fleet Management Ltd	MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	N/A	Airline Start-Ups/Strategy/Restructuring, Aircraft Remarketing/Acquisitions/Trading, Lease and Finance Structuring
Airbus Asset Management	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Support ranging from entry-into-service assistance through to maintenance/CPCP programmes and modifications
Aircastle Advisor	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Marketing, technical services and other asset management services
Airfund	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing, lease management, OL structuring, financing
Airstream	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing, Asset/lease management, company representation
AFT	MNG/SUP	-	R	-	-	OL	Lease management and technical/marketing consultancy
ALAFCO	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Aircraft/aircraft lease management
ALM	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB	Lease management, technical consultancy/monitoring, OL structuring, transaction risk assessment. Availability...
Amentum Capital	MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/FL	Portofolio/Asset management, structured finance, remarketing
AMH Aviation	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB	Remarketing, maintenance/ops management
AMS Management	MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB/ACMI	Asset management, Remarketing, Tech representation/consulting
Amtec ITP	OWN/MNG	L	-	E	-	OL	-
AOG Services	SUP	L	R	E	AP	N/A	TBA
ATBD Inc.	SUP	L	R	E	AP	N/A	Lease management; remarketing; financial, commerical, technical, legal support; New and used aircraft acquisition through purchase/lease; Risk assessment and audits.
Aurora Aviation Group	MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL	Insurance monitoring/compliance, aircraft inspections/redeliveries, finance consulting
Automatic	MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Trading, financing, acquisitions
Avequis	MNG	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Management services, trading/brokerage, financial advisory, technical consultancy
AviationBizD	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Arranger, Marketing, Manager, Consultant of Sale/Purchase- Leasebacks and financing for Commercial Regional aircraft
Aviation Capital	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Sales/trading, fleet management, remarketing, technical support
Aviation Engine Service Inc.	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Aviation Leasing Group	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Management/marketing/operational services, contract management
AvMax	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	R	-	-	OL	MRO services. Availability...
AWAS	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	E	-	OL/SLB	Trading, customer engineering, asset management
AWS Lease Finance	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing, asset management, technical/contract management
BAE Asset Management	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL	-
Bavaria International Aircraft Leasing	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	-
bci aircraft leasing	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Acquisition and management of aircraft under lease. Availability...
Blue Sky Aviation Ltd	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Aircraft sourcing for Operating lease, ACMI, Ad Hoc/Sub-charter
BOC Aviation	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Debt financing, lease management, structured finance, consultancy
Boeing Capital	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	Long/short-term financing, secured loans, managing technical assets
Cabot Aviation	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Aircraft remarketing/acquisition/trading, ACMI contracts, lease management Availability...
CALL	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Financing
Caribex Inc	SUP	L	-	-	-	N/A	Consulting, airline audits, ferry flights
Celerak	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Dry Lease, ACMI, Techical Support, Remarking, Financing services Availability...
Chapman Freeborn	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Aircraft purchasing, Cargo Air Charter
CIT	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	E	-	OL/SLB	Debt financing, aircraft management, cross-border tax structures
Compass Capital Corp.	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Acquisition and management of aircraft under lease
Contrails Capital	MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL/SLB	Remarketing, funding, consulting. Availability...
DAE Capital	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	Remarketing and aircraft sale/purchase advisory services
Delta TechOps	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Denim Air B.V.	OWN/MNG	-	R	-	-	OL/ACMI	TBA Availability...
Deutsche Bank - AFL	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Trading and Management consulting
Deutsche Operating Leasing AG	MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	TBA
DSF	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	-
DVB	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL	Remarketing, asset/lease management, technical consultancy
EADS SECA	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
ECC Leasing Ltd.	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	R	-	-	OL/SLB/FL	OEM (Embraer). Availability...
Egyptair M&E	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
ELFC	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL/SLB	Marketing, asset management
FGL Aircraft Ireland Ltd	SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	Re-marketing services
Finnair Technical Services	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
First Greenwich Kahala	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Aircraft management, sale/leaseback, trading and remarketingAvailability...
Flightstar Trading	SUP	L	R	E	AP	N/A	TBA
Fuyo General Lease Co. Ltd	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	Re-marketing services
GA Finance	OWN/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	Financing
GA Telesis	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL/SLB	Asset management, remarketing. Availability...
Gamit	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing, asset management
GE Engine Leasing	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL	Leasing, financing, asset management
GECAS	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL/FL/SLB	Leasing, financing, asset management
GMF AeroAsia	MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Lease, Maintenance Reserves and Tech Records management
GMT Global Republic Aviation	OWN/MNG	L	-	-	-	OL	Lease/asset management
GOAL	OWN/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB	Start-up/technical/financial consultancy
Guggenheim Aviation Partners	OWN	L	-	-	-	OL	Acquisition and management of aircraft under lease
H+S Aviation Ltd	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	AP	OL	MRO services
Honeywell Aerospace Trading	OWN	-	-	E	AP	OL	OEM and MRO. Availability...
Honeywell - Singapore	OWN	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Icelandic Aircraft Management	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/FL/SLB/ACMI	Remarketing and advisory services
ILFC	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Fleet planning/rationalisation, revenue/route analysis, maintenance/product support programs, structured financing
Ilyushin Finance Co	OWN/MNG	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB/FL	Tech support, training
Indigo Aviation Ltd	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing, Inter-Ailrine Leasing, Private Aicraft Charter
Inter Excel Advisory	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	TBA
Intrepid Aviation	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Forward purchases/sales, freighter conversion management
Itochu Airlease	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	-
ITR	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Jet Trading and Leasing	SUP	L	R	E	-	N/A	Aircraft management, sale/leaseback, trading and remarketing.Availability...
Jetfleet	SUP	-	R	-	-	N/A	Aircraft management (leases on behalf of AeroCentury)
Jetmark	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing
Jetran International	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Sales, acquisitions
Jetscape	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Aircraft management services, remarketing Availability...
Jetstream Aviation Capital	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	R	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	Regional turboprop leasing, sales, remarketing, asset management, structured finance, advisory
Kellstrom Industries	OWN	-	-	E	-	OL	Engine/airframe parts distributor
LCAL	OWN	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Exclusively Boeing 787
LCI Aviation	OWN/MNG	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Financing
Loftleidir Icelandic	MNG	L	-	-	-	ACMI	-
Lufthansa Technik	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	AP	OL	MRO services. Availability...
Lufthansa Technik Airmotive Ireland	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Lufthansa Technik AERO Alzey	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	AP	OL	MRO services
Macquarie AirFinance	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Financing Availability...
Magellan Air	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB	Aircraft asset management, financing, corporate advisory services
Magellan Group	MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL	Lease/maintenance management, sales/marketing, advisory services, audits
Maximus Air Cargo	OWN	L	-	-	-	A	TBA Availability...
MC Aircraft Management	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Aircraft marketing/sourcing, economic evaluations, tech consulting
MDT	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB	Remarketing, financing, advisory services
MEG Capital	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	TBA
MFS	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/ACMI	Financing, acquisitions, technical consultancy
MTU	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL/SLB	MRO and tech services. Availability...
NewJet Engine Services	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO Services
Nordic Aviation Contractor	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/FL/SLB	MRO (EASA 145)
North Star Aviation Services	SUP	-	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing, tech inspections/evaluations
Nyras	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Aircraft asset investment and leasing advisory services to both aircraft purchasers and vendors
Olympic Aerospace	OWN/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL	Aircraft/engine/inventory remarketing, inventory appraisals, spares distributor
ORIX Aviation	OWN/MNG	L	-	E	-	OL	Sales, remarketing, contract negotiation, deal structuring, lease administration, tech services. Availability...
P&W	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL	OEM and MRO
P&W Canada	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL	OEM and MRO
Pacific Coast Group	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Structured transactions, refinancing
Patriot Aviation Services	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	AP	OL	MRO services
Pembroke	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/FL	Marketing/remarketing, asset management, tech/financial services
Phoenix Aircraft Leasing Pte Ltd	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Remarketing, consulting. Availability...
Piedmont Aviation	OWN	-	-	-	AP	OL	MRO services
Prime Aviation	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	TBA
QCI	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	European AOC consultation and support, legal consultation/support for FAR 129 and 42 (US operations), aviation authorities liaison
RBS	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL/SLB	Asset finance, tax leases, structured solutions, capital markets
Red Eye Aerospace	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	AP	OL/SLB	TBA
Regent Star Aviation Management	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Advisory services, records management/audit, aircraft registration/certification
Regio Lease	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	TBA
Revima APU	OWN/MNG	-	-	-	AP	OL	MRO services
Rolls-Royce & Partners Finance Ltd	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL	OEM and MRO
Royal Aero Group	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL/SLB	Tech Services
Saab Aircraft Leasing	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	R	-	-	OL	OEM, trading, remarketing. Availability...
SAFAIR	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL/SLB/ACMI	Lease management, maintenance
Seabury Group	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Asset management, advisory services
SES	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL/SLB	TBA
SGI Aviation Services	SUP	L	R	E	-	N/A	Complete range of aircraft & engine asset management services, CAMO, training and regulatory/certification advisory
SH&E	SUP	L	R	E	-	N/A	Remarketing, asset management, consulting
Skytech AIC	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB	Aircraft management, marketing/remarketing
Skyways Aviation	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/ACMI	Asset management, technical advise, maintenance
SkyWorks Leasing	MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	-	Remarketing, asset management, technical services, investment/advisory services
Sojitz Aircraft Leasing BV	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	TBA
Spectrum Aerospace	OWN	-	-	-	AP	OL	Parts distributor
ST Aerospace	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Standard Aero	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Supreme Aviation	MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL/SLB/ACMI	Remarketing, aircraft management, consultancy
TEC Inc.	OWN/MNG	-	-	-	AP	OL	APU Maintenance Management and Consulting
TES	OWN/MNG/SUP	-	-	E	-	OL/SLB	Asset management, technical consultancy
The Leasing Corporation	MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL/SLB	Asset management, maintenance consultancy and support
Triumph Logistics	OWN/MNG	-	-	-	AP	OL	MRO services
Turbine Motor Works	OWN	-	-	E	-	OL	MRO services
Unique Technical Management	SUP	L	R	E	AP	N/A	Technical Services, Records Management/Oversight, Onsite In service Inspections, End of Lease Inspections, MRO representation and Oversight, Onsite Management
USA Global Aircraft	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	TBA
UTTI Inc	OWN/MNG	-	-	-	AP	OL	MRO Services
Veling	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Sales/remarketing, asset management, structured finance
Vietnam Aircraft Leasing Company	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	E	-	OL/ACMI/SLB	TBA
Viking Air	OWN/MNG	-	R	-	-	OL	Short term leases
Volito Aviation	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	R	-	-	OL	TBA Availability...
Volvo Aero Services	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL	OEM and MRO Availability...
VTB Leasing	OWN/MNG	L	R	E	-	OL/FL/SLB	TBA
Waha Leasing	OWN/MNG	L	R	-	-	OL	TBA Availability...
Willis Lease	OWN/MNG	-	-	E	-	OL/SLB	Trading, pooling
World Airline Services	SUP	L	R	-	-	N/A	Cargo Subcharters, consultancy
World Star Aviation	OWN/MNG/SUP	L	-	-	-	OL	Remarketing, lease/records management

Abbreviations ACMI: Aircraft Crew Maintenance Insurance (wet lease) AP: APUs E: Engines FL: Financial Lease L: Large aircraft (wide and narrow body jets) MNG: The company provides asset management services for aircraft, engines or APUs N/A: Not Applicable OL: Operating Lease OWN: The company owns aircraft, engines or APUs that leases to operators (new and used) R: Regional aircraft (props and jets) SLB: Sale and Lease Back SUP: The company provides support services for lease transactions