31.3.09

How Banks Can Exploit Geithner's Plan

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I want Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's plan to save the banks to work. I want banks to jettison all the crap on their balance sheets and allow taxpayers to profit. Everyone does. It'd be the ultimate victory during an economic collapse where nothing has gone right.

But I'm also a realist. There are several reasons to think that Geithner's plan to form a public-private investment partnership will not only fail, but will become a massive wealth transfer from taxpayers to banks. When the plan first came out last week, I didn't think such a transfer was likely. With a simple example, I now realize otherwise.

No buyers, no sellers
The gap between what banks like Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) or Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) are willing to sell for and what investors are willing to pay is gigantic. If AIG (NYSE: AIG)
wants to sell an asset for $0.80 on the dollar, yet private investors are only willing to pay $0.40 on the dollar, we get nowhere.

To solve this dilemma, Geithner's plan provides 85% nonrecourse financing to private investors. The Treasury then splits the equity 50/50. So, to buy an asset for $100, private investors only have to risk about $8. While that seems like an unfair risk for taxpayers, private investors theoretically won't overpay, because they can lose every dime they put in. In all likelihood, that'll prove to be the case most of the time.

Unless …
Yet with a little creativity, it's easy to see how banks could sell assets at extravagant prices -- perhaps 100 cents on the dollar -- while dumping most of the risk on taxpayers. Private investors who participate in this plan, you see, have sole authority to set the bid price on assets. As the Treasury's recent press release states:

The highest bid from the private sector … [will] define the total price paid by the private investors and the Treasury.

Hence, banks have a huge incentive to get someone to bid exorbitant prices. Who is that "someone"? Well, that's where things could get shady.

According to the Treasury, investors who meet a few simple criteria pre-qualify to participate in the plan. For example, pre-qualified investors must have:

  • Capacity to raise at least $500 million of private capital.
  • Experience investing in eligible assets, including through performance track records.
  • A minimum of $10 billion of assets under management.
  • Headquarters in the United States.

All pretty simple. Oodles and oodles of hedge funds and private equity funds fit those requirements.

Trouble is, you can draw a straight line from banks to some of those seemingly "independent" private investors. Hedge funds in particular have extraordinarily tight relationships with investment banks like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), or Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) that often play ball on the same court.

In fact, private investment partnerships can actually be owned by banks themselves. For example, Lehman Brothers invested in, provided management for, and supplied office space to a hedge fund called R3 Capital Partners last year. It then sold $4.5 billion worth of assets to R3 at undisclosed prices. For whatever reason, Lehman essentially sold assets to itself through an "independent" entity.

Welcome to the ingenuity of Wall Street -- throw in a little creativity and fancy structuring, and suddenly the distinction between banks selling assets and private investors buying assets is blurred.

Here's a simple example of how this could derail the success of Geithner's plan:

  • Bank A has a toxic asset no sane investor would pay more than $30 for.
  • Bank A gets Private Investor B -- an entity with ties to Bank A itself -- to participate in Geithner's plan and pay full price for the asset -- $100, in this case.
  • Bank A receives $100. Expect something similar to Citigroup's (NYSE: C) famous "We're saved! Everything is fine!" memo to follow.

In due time, the asset's true value -- $30 -- is realized. Since Private Investor B only put up a sliver of equity, it loses its $7 and walks away. No biggie.

Now connect the dots:

  • Bank A sold an asset worth $30 for $100 -- it made a $70 windfall.
  • Private Investor B -- with ties to Bank A -- loses only $7 when those assets go bad. Bank A happily repays $7 to Private Investor B for the trouble. Everybody wins, except for …

… the taxpayer
Since government-issued nonrecourse leverage is involved, banks can simply overbid for assets via "independent" investors and funnel most of the risk onto taxpayers. Heads they win, tails you lose.

Like I've said before, 2+2 is never going to equal 100, no matter how many bells and whistles you slap on these bailouts. If the goal is to recapitalize banks in an efficient manner, there are other sensible ways to do it. Giving banks the ability to write their own ticket isn't one of them.

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Bạn có biết Quý 02.2009

Với mức dự báo tăng trưởng 4,5% cho năm 2009 và 6,5% cho năm 2010 của ADB, ngân hàng này đã dựa trên những giả định là Chính phủ tiếp tục có những biện pháp kích thích tài chính tiếp theo ngoài 1 tỷ USD năm 2009.

NHNN Việt Nam vẫn duy trì chính sách tiền tệ nới lỏng. Sản lượng dầu dự kiến sẽ tăng lên 15,5 triệu tấn trong năm 2009, nhà máy lọc dầu Dung Quất có khả năng chế biến 6,5 triệu tấn dầu thô mỗi năm.

Tuy nhiên, triển vọng kinh tế năm 2010 được dự đoán là sẽ sáng sủa hơn với mức tăng trưởng 6,5%.
Chính sách tiền tệ nới lỏng, sự gia tăng tiêu dùng và đầu tư trong nước sẽ được thúc đẩy khi chính sách kích cầu của Chính phủ tác động lên toàn bộ nền kinh tế. Ngoài ra, tình hình tài chính quốc tế dự đoán là sẽ được cải thiện, do đó đầu tư nước ngoài vào Việt Nam sẽ tăng, giá trị xuất khẩu cũng tăng lên.

Ông Ayumi Konishi, Giám đốc Quốc gia của ADB tại Việt Nam cho biết, thách thức đối với Việt Nam trong ngắn hạn là phải hạn chế sự tăng trưởng chậm chạp trong khi vẫn kiểm soát thâm hụt tài chính và thâm hụt tài khoản vãng lai.
Chính phủ Việt Nam cần đẩy mạnh cải cách kinh tế, mở cửa hơn theo cam kết WTO, đảm bảo lòng tin đối với nhà đầu tư.

Dự đoán của ADB về thâm hụt ngân sách năm 2009 tăng lên 9,8% GDP do Chính phủ giảm nguồn thu từ dầu mỏ, thuế thu nhập doanh nghiệp giảm từ 28% xuống 25%, chi cho gói kích cầu.

Con số này dự đoán năm 2010 giảm xuống 5,3% GDP do giá dầu thế giới dự báo tăng, kinh tế phục hồi thúc đẩy tổng thu của Chính phủ, chi tiêu cho biện pháp kích thích tài chính giảm.

Nhận định về tăng trưởng của Việt Nam trong trung hạn ADB cho rằng, GDP của Việt Nam sẽ dao động từ 7 – 7,5% do FDI đầu tư vào Việt Nam tăng mạnh. Chính phủ Việt Nam cho phép tư nhân hóa toàn bộ một số doanh nghiệp Nhà nước, đặc biệt thông qua việc bán chúng cho nhà đầu tư nước ngoài có nhiều khả năng sẽ thúc đẩy dòng vốn FDI chảy mạnh hơn.

29.3.09

Aswath Damodaran

Last Updated: January 2009

This page provides information on how to collect data from a variety of sources. it also allows you to look at and download a number of data sets that you might find useful in corporate finance and valuation. If you have trouble viewing the data in your browser, you can download the data in excel format. I will try to keep them updated, and include the dates of the updates with the data sets. If you want to see the company-specific information, you can download the data on individual firms below.

Spreadsheet Programs

Hi! With time, the number of spreadsheets on this page have also increased. To help you in finding the spreadsheet that you might want, I have categorized the spreadsheets into the following groups:
1. Corporate finance spreadsheets: These spreadsheets are most useful if you are interested in conventional corporate financial analysis. It includes spreadsheets to analyze a project's cashflows and viability, a company's risk profile, its optimal capital structure and debt type, andwhether it is paying out what it can afford to in dividends.
2. Valuation Inputs Spreadsheets: In this section, you will find spreadsheets that allow you to
a. Estimate the right discount rate to use for your firm, starting with the risk premium in your cost of equity and concluding with the cost of capital for your firm.
b. Convert R&D and operating leases into capitalized assets
c. estimate the right capital expenditures and diagnose the terminal value assumptions to see if they are reasonable.
3. Valuation Model Reconciliation: In this section, you will find spreadsheets that reconcile different DCF approaches - FCFE versus Dividend Discount Model, FCFE versus FCFF model, EVA versus Cost of capital and Net Debt versus Gross Debt Approaches.
4 . Big-picture valuation spreadsheets: If you are looking for one spreadsheet to help you in valuing a company, I would recommend one of these 'ginzu' spreadsheets. While they require a large number of inputs, they are flexible enough to allow you to value just about any company. You do have to decide whether you want to use a dividend, FCFE or FCFF model spreadsheet. If you have no idea which one will work for you, I would suggest that you try the "right model" spreadsheet first.
5 . Focused valuation spreadsheets: If you have a clear choice in terms of models - stable growth dividend discount, 2-stage FCFE etc. - you can download a spreadsheet for the specific model in this section.
6. Valuation of specific types of companies: Valuation is all about exceptions, and these spreadsheets are designed to help value specific types of companies including:
a. Financial Service firms: While dividend discount models tend to be the weapon of choice for many, you will find an excess equity return model here.
b. Troubled firms: You will find an earnings normalizer spreadsheet, a generic valuation model for valuing a firm as a going concern and a spreadsheet that allows you to estimate the probability that a troubled firm will not survive.
c. Private companies: You will find spreadsheets for adjusting discount rates and estimating illiquidity discounts for private companies.
d. Young and high-growth firms: You will find a revenue growth estimator as well as a generic valuation model for high growth firms in this section.
7 . Multiples: You can estimate equity as well as firm value multiples, based upon fundamentals.
8 . Valuation in Acquisitions: You can value synergy in an acquiisition and analyze a leveraged buyout.
9 . Valuation of other assets: In this section, you will find a model for valuing income-generating real estate.
10 . Value Enhancement Spreadsheets: In this section, you will find a spreadsheet that reconciles EVA and DCF valuation, a model for estimating CFROI and a DCF version of a value enhancement spreadsheet.
11. Basic option pricing models: In this seciton, you will find Black-Scholes models for valuing short term options, long term options and options that result in dilution of stock (such as warrants). In addition, you will find spreadsheets that convert Black-Scholes inputs into Binomial model inputs and use the binomial model to value options.
12. Real option models in corporate finance: In this section, you will find three basic real option models - the option to delay, the option to expand and the option to abandon. In addition, the value of financial flexibility is considered as an option.
13. Real option models in valuation: In this section, you will find models to value both a patent (and a firm owning a patent) as an option, natural resource firms and equity in deeply troubled firms.
These spreadsheet programs are written in Excel and are not copy protected. Download them and feel free to modify them to your own specifications. I do have video guides available for some of the most accessed spreadsheets. I hope they are useful.

3. Web Casts


http://www.fma.org/FMAOnline/FMAOnlineArchive.htm

10.3.09

Ứng dụng Excel và Crystal Ball trong phân tích chứng khoán

Đến thời điểm này đã có 244 công ty niêm yết trên sàn giao dịch Hồ Chí Minh (HOSE). Tuy nhiên VN - Index lâu nay vẫn chưa được coi là chỉ số của thị trường.

Tôi chọn ra 17 chứng khoán gồm: AGF, BBC, BBT, CAN, DPC, GIL, GMD, HAP, HAS, KHA, LAF, PMS, REE, SAM, SGH, TS4, VTC với 44 quan sát theo tháng từ 4/2004 đến 11/2007. Trong phần nghiên cứu này tôi hy vọng sẽ đưa ra một cách nhìn cụ thể hơn về VN-Index.

Bài nghiên cứu gồm các phần chính sau:

1. Tính toán tỷ suất sinh lợi và lập ma trận phương sai – hiệp phương sai
2. Xác định danh mục đầu tư gồm 17 chứng khoán
3. Tính toán danh mục đầu tư chứng khoán hiệu quả
4. Tìm danh mục thị trường và đường thị trường vốn ( CML)
5. Ước lượng hệ số beta và SML - kiểm định mô hình CAPM
6. Xác định danh mục không có bán khống
7. Tối ưu hóa - ứng dụng crystal ball

Xin download file bên dưới. Hi vọng đây là món quà đầu năm của Marketrac cho tất cả Saganors.

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